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The below-ground growing season often extends beyond the above-ground growing season in tundra ecosystems. However, we do not yet know where and when this occurs and whether these phenological asynchronies are driven by variation in local vegetation communities or by spatial variation in microclimate. Here, we combined above- and below-ground plant phenology metrics to compare the relative timings and magnitudes of leaf and root growth and senescence across microclimates and plant communities at five sites across the tundra biome. We observed asynchronous growth between above-ground and below-ground plant tissue, with the below-ground season extending up to 74% beyond the onset of above-ground leaf senescence. Plant community type, rather than microclimate, was a key factor controlling the timing, productivity and growth rates of roots, with graminoid roots exhibiting a distinct ‘pulse’ of growth later into the growing season than shrub roots. Our findings indicate the potential of vegetation change to influence below-ground carbon storage as roots remain active in unfrozen soils for longer as the climate warms. Taken together, increased root growth in soils that remain thawed later into the growing season, in combination with ongoing tundra vegetation change including increased shrubs and graminoids, can act together to alter below-ground productivity and carbon cycling in the tundra biome. 

Abstract The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average¹and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution^2–4. However, the direction and magnitude of local changes in plant diversity in the Arctic have not been quantified. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots across the Arctic, here we quantified temporal changes in species richness and composition through repeat surveys between 1981 and 2022. We also identified the geographical, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. We found greater species richness at lower latitudes and warmer sites, but no indication that, on average, species richness had changed directionally over time. However, species turnover was widespread, with 59% of plots gaining and/or losing species. Proportions of species gains and losses were greater where temperatures had increased the most. Shrub expansion, particularly of erect shrubs, was associated with greater species losses and decreasing species richness. Despite changes in plant composition, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other, suggesting no biotic homogenization so far. Overall, Arctic plant communities changed in richness and composition in different directions, with temperature and plant–plant interactions emerging as the main drivers of change. Our findings demonstrate how climate and biotic drivers can act in concert to alter plant composition, which could precede future biodiversity changes that are likely to affect ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and the livelihoods of Arctic peoples^5,6. 

Abstract Wetlands in Arctic drained lake basins (DLBs) have a high potential for carbon storage in vegetation and peat as well as for elevated greenhouse gas emissions. However, the evolution of vegetation and organic matter is rarely studied in DLBs, making these abundant wetlands especially uncertain elements of the permafrost carbon budget. We surveyed multiple DLB generations in northern Alaska with the goal to assess vegetation, microtopography, and organic matter in surface sediment and pond water in DLBs and to provide the first high-resolution land cover classification for a DLB system focussing on moisture-related vegetation classes for the Teshekpuk Lake region. We associated sediment properties and methane concentrations along a post-drainage succession gradient with remote sensing-derived land cover classes. Our study distinguished five eco-hydrological classes using statistical clustering of vegetation data, which corresponded to the land cover classes. We identified surface wetness and time since drainage as predictors of vegetation composition. Microtopographic complexity increased after drainage. Organic carbon and nitrogen contents in sediment, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved nitrogen (DN) in ponds were high throughout, indicating high organic matter availability and decomposition. We confirmed wetness as a predictor of sediment methane concentrations. Our findings suggest moderate to high methane concentrations independent of drainage age, with particularly high concentrations beneath submerged patches (up to 200μmol l⁻¹) and in pond water (up to 22μmol l⁻¹). In our DLB system, wet and shallow submerged patches with high methane concentrations occupied 54% of the area, and ponds with high DOC, DN and methane occupied another 11%. In conclusion, we demonstrate that DLB wetlands are highly productive regarding organic matter decomposition and methane production. Machine learning-aided land cover classification using high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery provides a useful tool for future upscaling of sediment properties and methane emission potentials from Arctic DLBs. 

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’. 

Abstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. 

Abstract Foundation species have disproportionately large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. As a result, future changes to their distribution may be important determinants of ecosystem carbon (C) cycling in a warmer world. We assessed the role of a foundation tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) as a climatically vulnerable C stock using field data, a machine learning ecological niche model, and an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Field data indicated that tussock density has decreased by ∼0.97 tussocks per m²over the past ∼38 years on Alaska’s North Slope from ∼1981 to 2019. This declining trend is concerning because tussocks are a large Arctic C stock, which enhances soil organic layer C stocks by 6.9% on average and represents 745 Tg C across our study area. By 2100, we project that changes in tussock density may decrease the tussock C stock by 41% in regions where tussocks are currently abundant (e.g. −0.8 tussocks per m²and −85 Tg C on the North Slope) and may increase the tussock C stock by 46% in regions where tussocks are currently scarce (e.g. +0.9 tussocks per m²and +81 Tg C on Victoria Island). These climate-induced changes to the tussock C stock were comparable to, but sometimes opposite in sign, to vegetation C stock changes predicted by an ensemble of TBMs. Our results illustrate the important role of tussocks as a foundation species in determining future Arctic C stocks and highlight the need for better representation of this species in TBMs. 

Abstract Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades.